Much of Anglo-Saxon press has been announcing the imminent death of the Euro for over 20 years. Since well before Euro notes and coins were issued to the over 300 million people in the Eurozone it was announced as a dead birth: When the EUR/USD dropped to below parity, the Euro was called a toilet currency, when the $EURUSD rose to above parity with the US-Dollar, Anglo-Saxon banks and analysts were forecasting that the Euro would soon drop back to below parity. Parity is of little value when comparing currencies, but seems be used an important measure of potency in the popular press.
Currency traders know that exchange rates move all the time, that’s how you try to make money from it. Currency traders provide liquidity, thereby stabilizing exchange rates.
But forecasting – year in year out – the death of a currency adopted by 25 rich countries is tiring. As the future is never here, it is easy to push a forecast down the line. The Deutsch Mark and the Austrian Shilling lasted for just over 50 years and the Euro already about a third of that time. Any serious forecast of the “death of the Euro” should come with a date, to allow the Euro folks to ridicule the naysayers after that day.
For my part, I do trade currencies and I will try to profit from the ups and downs, but I won’t recommend anyone to bet on the death of currency used by mature, advanced economies of countries as Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and the Netherlands.